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I believe that advice for when to accept an offer during the Top Dollar bonus game has been discussed a few times. However, the only relevant discussion I could find is in a thread for another game.

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http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/21294-extreme-x-poker/#post439574

Top Dollar is a strange one, does the game tell you whether keeping the win is Optimal or whether one should try again? I understand how the game works, but I've never played it. Does the game give the probabilities of hitting certain results?

I finally remembered last night to take a photo of the strategy guide. The strategy for accepting the offer is based on the offer amount. The 'best play says' that will be displayed after about 20 seconds is based on the strategy and is not a definite indication that the next offer will be higher or lower.
'Although individual results are random, the best overall strategy is to select [Take Offer]
If the 1st offer is at least 50
If the 2nd offer is at least 45
Or if the 3rd offer is at least 35'

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(This photo of the game info screen is from the Top Dollar machine in the high limit room at Aliante.)In the Wizard of Vegas game guide for slots under Advice:

In Top Dollar, if you watch the little screen, it will eventually give you advice, after about 20 seconds. It shows it quickly, so pay attention. You should follow this advice.

The key point that I want to make for this thread is that the 'Best play says' advice of 'Try Again' or 'Take Offer' is based solely on the strategy that can be found in one of the Info/Help screens. The advice of 'Try Again' does not guarantee that the next offer will be higher.

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If it was me I would rather choose the Take offer. Choosing try again does not guarantee you anything. It is more risky than just taking the offer.

By that same standard, tossing a Jack of Spades that would otherwise start you with a pair of Jacks is more risky than holding the JQKA of Diamonds that you were dealt with it, which would you rather do?

In the Wizard of Vegas game guide for slots under Advice:
The key point that I want to make for this thread is that the 'Best play says' advice of 'Try Again' or 'Take Offer' is based solely on the strategy that can be found in one of the Info/Help screens. The advice of 'Try Again' does not guarantee that the next offer will be higher.

On some machines this advice thing was hard to noticed. IIRC it slowly scrolls across the digital screen in green letters. I didn't really notice it at first, it's not like I had that many good opportunities to play it. I was just winging it on the last offer depending on how much it was.
I do believe MaxPen pointed it out to me, he also has some experience with TD. You can grab his attention, he's probably over gloating in the election thread.
On the rare occasions I have a good reason to play TD I now do what it says to do(I think The Wizard would agree) in the long run it should work out better for you. I had better results taking its advice. Legally I don't think they can offer long term bad advice. I wouldn't treat it any different than a table game or VP strategy. It may not work out each time, however in the long run it's the best way.

Legally I don't think they can offer long term bad advice.

Probably not. And in New Jersey at least, they must offer the correct advice, or the game wouldn't be legal.

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A good rule of thumb is to not be greedy. I have read that a guy had a good offer on just $1(100) and decided he wanted the $1000 prize and held out for it. He ended up with $15 and was mad. Don't be greedy.

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I play 3 Credit - $25 Dollar Top Dollar Deluxe at a 'Boutique' Casino in Eastern Pennsylvania. Its slowly becoming the game I transition more to, from $100 WOF.
I come up with this conundrum when playing, because I've had this happen multiple times
Offer 1 - 35 Credits (Pass No thanks) $875
Offer 2 - 100-10-5-X2-X2 = 460 Credits $11,500
I almost wish they would show you the offers you missed. Theres a part of me that wants to push it and go to the next offer, but in the 3 times its happened, I've taken the offer everytime. its a 25$ game, I couldn't imagine its average multiple payout much higher than that.
Honestly it has paid out more than the 2 Credit - 100$ Top Dollar games I've played at the Seminole Casinos in Florida (avoid them like the plague)

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With that level of play, you would be a king in Vegas. Not sure what VF can be giving you of value in comps.

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